Friday 31 October 2014

No nation Labour..


We knew yesterday that the Opposition had a fight for its hands in Scotland. Two polls reveal the scale of the challenge. An Ipsos Mori poll for STV finds 52% of Scots planning to vote for the SNP, with just 23% planning to vote for Ed Miliband's party: from 41 seats to just 4. A YouGov survey for the Times is a little bit better, with Nicola Sturgeon's outfit on 43% and Labour on 27%, with Labour holding on to 10 seats north of the border. "Wipeout for Labour looming in Scotland" is their splash.
Of course, it's worth noting that a uniform swing is, frankly, highly unlikely. Many of Labour's MPs are pretty well dug in. Equally, the political situation at present could hardly be better for the Nationalists, with Ms Sturgeon's triumphant tour through the nation and Scottish Labour leaderless and fractious. But it also looks highly unlikely that Labour will be able to hold on to more than 30 seats north of the border. The chances of Ed Miliband leading the largest party, let alone winning a majority, are receding rapidly. 
That said, there's little to celebrate for the Conservatives either. The despairing note struck by Thomas Docherty, a Labour frontbencher, on the World at One, carries a warning for the PM, too: "the SNP win again, the Tories win again...[and] another referendum". The Opposition's woes in its heartlands may be good for the Conservative and Unionist Party if it allows the PM back into office despite the Ukip factor. It is less good for conservative or Unionist principles if the price of victory is a further weakening of the United Kingdom. 

THE HUNTING OF THE WOOLF
Fiona Woolf, the judge at the head of the child abuse inquiry, is under further pressure to resign after it emerged that her letter to Theresa May was rewritten to play down her links with Lord Brittan, the Conservative peer at the centre of the scandal, David Barrett reports"Woolf At The Exit Door" is the Mirror's splash. Reclusive MP Keith Vaz warns: "The lessons of the Butler-Sloss appointment and resignation have not been learned."
ALAS, ANAS
Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour's deputy leader, has announced that he will resign his post once a leader is found, allowing that party to refresh its leadership entirely (and, in the event of a Jim Murphy victory, avoiding a top team drawn entirely from the Commons). It still looks likely that Mr Sarwar, the MP for Glasgow Central, will be moved into the Shadow Cabinet as Scottish Secretary, with Margaret Curran taking up post at Shadow Dfid. However, I'm told that move will be very badly received by development NGOs, who have been dissatisfied with Jim Murphy's performance at Dfid and are uneasy at Ed Milband's use of the post as a consolation. It may be smarter to promote Shadow Finance Secretary Catherine McKinnell or Alison McGovern, the junior frontbencher for Dfid, both of whom are liked and respected in the development sector as part of a wider-ranging reshuffle.
MERLIN'S MAGIC FADES
Further trouble for the Conservative campaign in Rochester & Strood.Laura Pitel reports that the campaign has been hit by glitches in the software designed to target voters, the much-maligned "Merlin" system. One Conservative staffer quips that "Source Merlin" turned out to be a front for Soviet intelligence in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and that the IT system "does the same for Ed Miliband". Merlin is being gradually replaced by VoteSource, a superior system.

"IT MIGHT BE WORTH LISTENING TO ME"
Tony Blair has warned Labour against "chasing after" anti-immigration policies in an interview with Progress, Ben-Riley Smith reports. Labour should "not end up chasing after the policies of a party like Ukip, who you don't agree with, whose policies would take this country backwards economically, politically, in every conceivable way", Mr Blair says. The full interview is available here.

HELPING THE POWERFUL, OR THE POOR?
UK foreign aid is helping to fund corruption overseas, according to the Independent Commission for Aid Impact (ICAI). "Confirmed: Our Foreign Aid Fuels Corruption" is the Mail's splash. Not enough is being done to fight corruption and it is violating Dfid's "do no harm" doctrine. "This is a gap in Dfid's programming that needs to be filled," Graham Ward, ICAI supremo says
LOW LOW LOW
David Cameron would prefer interest rates to stay low as it allows families to "buy the homes they can afford". But the PM added: "It would be disastrous if I could tell them [the Bank of England] what to do, because politicians interfering in interest rates is not a good thing." Matt Holehouse reports from the PM's Q&A in Runcorn. . 
KEEPING IT IN THE FAMILY
Every new policy will face a "family friendly" test to make sure they encourage support for families in general and marriage in particular, Iain Duncan Smith says in the Mail. The guidance has been drawn up with the help of Relate, which estimates that familial breakdown costs the UK £46 billion a year.
WHY ALWAYS HIM?
Guy Opperman caused a flurry of excitement after tweeting that Liverpool's misfiring forward, Mario Balotelli, had "popped in to Commons Gallery to watch the Drug Policy debate".  It turns out that it was in fact a 55-year-old dancer, Ken Hinds, who says he "gets it all the time". Mario Balotelli is 24. See the uncanny resemblance for yourself here.
You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work isavailable here.  
HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?
31.10.14
POLL OF POLLS
Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 17% (ComRes-Opinium-Populus-YouGov, 24.10.2014-31.10.2014)
LATEST POLLS:
YouGov: Conservatives 33%, Labour 32%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 15%, Greens 7%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@patrick_kidd: After this poll there may be a stampede of Labour MPs seeking the leadership in Scotland. Got to keep a job somehow.
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Fraser Nelson - Leaving the EU won't solve immigration problem
Isabel Hardman - Tory malcontents are whipping up a storm
Alan Cochrane - Jim Murphy could be Labour's only hope
David Blair - Does British aid to Africa help the powerful more than the poor? 
From elsewhere

Aditya Chakrabortty - I'm Bengali and I'm black, in the same way that my parents were (Guardian)Tim Montgomerie - Austerity is over; and that's a big mistake (Times)
1900 DUMFRIES: Nicola Sturgeon rally. 

No nation Labour..


We knew yesterday that the Opposition had a fight for its hands in Scotland. Two polls reveal the scale of the challenge. An Ipsos Mori poll for STV finds 52% of Scots planning to vote for the SNP, with just 23% planning to vote for Ed Miliband's party: from 41 seats to just 4. A YouGov survey for the Times is a little bit better, with Nicola Sturgeon's outfit on 43% and Labour on 27%, with Labour holding on to 10 seats north of the border. "Wipeout for Labour looming in Scotland" is their splash.
Of course, it's worth noting that a uniform swing is, frankly, highly unlikely. Many of Labour's MPs are pretty well dug in. Equally, the political situation at present could hardly be better for the Nationalists, with Ms Sturgeon's triumphant tour through the nation and Scottish Labour leaderless and fractious. But it also looks highly unlikely that Labour will be able to hold on to more than 30 seats north of the border. The chances of Ed Miliband leading the largest party, let alone winning a majority, are receding rapidly. 
That said, there's little to celebrate for the Conservatives either. The despairing note struck by Thomas Docherty, a Labour frontbencher, on the World at One, carries a warning for the PM, too: "the SNP win again, the Tories win again...[and] another referendum". The Opposition's woes in its heartlands may be good for the Conservative and Unionist Party if it allows the PM back into office despite the Ukip factor. It is less good for conservative or Unionist principles if the price of victory is a further weakening of the United Kingdom. 

THE HUNTING OF THE WOOLF
Fiona Woolf, the judge at the head of the child abuse inquiry, is under further pressure to resign after it emerged that her letter to Theresa May was rewritten to play down her links with Lord Brittan, the Conservative peer at the centre of the scandal, David Barrett reports"Woolf At The Exit Door" is the Mirror's splash. Reclusive MP Keith Vaz warns: "The lessons of the Butler-Sloss appointment and resignation have not been learned."
ALAS, ANAS
Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour's deputy leader, has announced that he will resign his post once a leader is found, allowing that party to refresh its leadership entirely (and, in the event of a Jim Murphy victory, avoiding a top team drawn entirely from the Commons). It still looks likely that Mr Sarwar, the MP for Glasgow Central, will be moved into the Shadow Cabinet as Scottish Secretary, with Margaret Curran taking up post at Shadow Dfid. However, I'm told that move will be very badly received by development NGOs, who have been dissatisfied with Jim Murphy's performance at Dfid and are uneasy at Ed Milband's use of the post as a consolation. It may be smarter to promote Shadow Finance Secretary Catherine McKinnell or Alison McGovern, the junior frontbencher for Dfid, both of whom are liked and respected in the development sector as part of a wider-ranging reshuffle.
MERLIN'S MAGIC FADES
Further trouble for the Conservative campaign in Rochester & Strood.Laura Pitel reports that the campaign has been hit by glitches in the software designed to target voters, the much-maligned "Merlin" system. One Conservative staffer quips that "Source Merlin" turned out to be a front for Soviet intelligence in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and that the IT system "does the same for Ed Miliband". Merlin is being gradually replaced by VoteSource, a superior system.

"IT MIGHT BE WORTH LISTENING TO ME"
Tony Blair has warned Labour against "chasing after" anti-immigration policies in an interview with Progress, Ben-Riley Smith reports. Labour should "not end up chasing after the policies of a party like Ukip, who you don't agree with, whose policies would take this country backwards economically, politically, in every conceivable way", Mr Blair says. The full interview is available here.

HELPING THE POWERFUL, OR THE POOR?
UK foreign aid is helping to fund corruption overseas, according to the Independent Commission for Aid Impact (ICAI). "Confirmed: Our Foreign Aid Fuels Corruption" is the Mail's splash. Not enough is being done to fight corruption and it is violating Dfid's "do no harm" doctrine. "This is a gap in Dfid's programming that needs to be filled," Graham Ward, ICAI supremo says
LOW LOW LOW
David Cameron would prefer interest rates to stay low as it allows families to "buy the homes they can afford". But the PM added: "It would be disastrous if I could tell them [the Bank of England] what to do, because politicians interfering in interest rates is not a good thing." Matt Holehouse reports from the PM's Q&A in Runcorn. . 
KEEPING IT IN THE FAMILY
Every new policy will face a "family friendly" test to make sure they encourage support for families in general and marriage in particular, Iain Duncan Smith says in the Mail. The guidance has been drawn up with the help of Relate, which estimates that familial breakdown costs the UK £46 billion a year.
WHY ALWAYS HIM?
Guy Opperman caused a flurry of excitement after tweeting that Liverpool's misfiring forward, Mario Balotelli, had "popped in to Commons Gallery to watch the Drug Policy debate".  It turns out that it was in fact a 55-year-old dancer, Ken Hinds, who says he "gets it all the time". Mario Balotelli is 24. See the uncanny resemblance for yourself here.
You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work isavailable here.  
HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?
31.10.14
POLL OF POLLS
Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 17% (ComRes-Opinium-Populus-YouGov, 24.10.2014-31.10.2014)
LATEST POLLS:
YouGov: Conservatives 33%, Labour 32%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 15%, Greens 7%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@patrick_kidd: After this poll there may be a stampede of Labour MPs seeking the leadership in Scotland. Got to keep a job somehow.
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Fraser Nelson - Leaving the EU won't solve immigration problem
Isabel Hardman - Tory malcontents are whipping up a storm
Alan Cochrane - Jim Murphy could be Labour's only hope
David Blair - Does British aid to Africa help the powerful more than the poor? 
From elsewhere

Aditya Chakrabortty - I'm Bengali and I'm black, in the same way that my parents were (Guardian)Tim Montgomerie - Austerity is over; and that's a big mistake (Times)
1900 DUMFRIES: Nicola Sturgeon rally. 

No nation Labour..


We knew yesterday that the Opposition had a fight for its hands in Scotland. Two polls reveal the scale of the challenge. An Ipsos Mori poll for STV finds 52% of Scots planning to vote for the SNP, with just 23% planning to vote for Ed Miliband's party: from 41 seats to just 4. A YouGov survey for the Times is a little bit better, with Nicola Sturgeon's outfit on 43% and Labour on 27%, with Labour holding on to 10 seats north of the border. "Wipeout for Labour looming in Scotland" is their splash.
Of course, it's worth noting that a uniform swing is, frankly, highly unlikely. Many of Labour's MPs are pretty well dug in. Equally, the political situation at present could hardly be better for the Nationalists, with Ms Sturgeon's triumphant tour through the nation and Scottish Labour leaderless and fractious. But it also looks highly unlikely that Labour will be able to hold on to more than 30 seats north of the border. The chances of Ed Miliband leading the largest party, let alone winning a majority, are receding rapidly. 
That said, there's little to celebrate for the Conservatives either. The despairing note struck by Thomas Docherty, a Labour frontbencher, on the World at One, carries a warning for the PM, too: "the SNP win again, the Tories win again...[and] another referendum". The Opposition's woes in its heartlands may be good for the Conservative and Unionist Party if it allows the PM back into office despite the Ukip factor. It is less good for conservative or Unionist principles if the price of victory is a further weakening of the United Kingdom. 

THE HUNTING OF THE WOOLF
Fiona Woolf, the judge at the head of the child abuse inquiry, is under further pressure to resign after it emerged that her letter to Theresa May was rewritten to play down her links with Lord Brittan, the Conservative peer at the centre of the scandal, David Barrett reports"Woolf At The Exit Door" is the Mirror's splash. Reclusive MP Keith Vaz warns: "The lessons of the Butler-Sloss appointment and resignation have not been learned."
ALAS, ANAS
Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour's deputy leader, has announced that he will resign his post once a leader is found, allowing that party to refresh its leadership entirely (and, in the event of a Jim Murphy victory, avoiding a top team drawn entirely from the Commons). It still looks likely that Mr Sarwar, the MP for Glasgow Central, will be moved into the Shadow Cabinet as Scottish Secretary, with Margaret Curran taking up post at Shadow Dfid. However, I'm told that move will be very badly received by development NGOs, who have been dissatisfied with Jim Murphy's performance at Dfid and are uneasy at Ed Milband's use of the post as a consolation. It may be smarter to promote Shadow Finance Secretary Catherine McKinnell or Alison McGovern, the junior frontbencher for Dfid, both of whom are liked and respected in the development sector as part of a wider-ranging reshuffle.
MERLIN'S MAGIC FADES
Further trouble for the Conservative campaign in Rochester & Strood.Laura Pitel reports that the campaign has been hit by glitches in the software designed to target voters, the much-maligned "Merlin" system. One Conservative staffer quips that "Source Merlin" turned out to be a front for Soviet intelligence in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and that the IT system "does the same for Ed Miliband". Merlin is being gradually replaced by VoteSource, a superior system.

"IT MIGHT BE WORTH LISTENING TO ME"
Tony Blair has warned Labour against "chasing after" anti-immigration policies in an interview with Progress, Ben-Riley Smith reports. Labour should "not end up chasing after the policies of a party like Ukip, who you don't agree with, whose policies would take this country backwards economically, politically, in every conceivable way", Mr Blair says. The full interview is available here.

HELPING THE POWERFUL, OR THE POOR?
UK foreign aid is helping to fund corruption overseas, according to the Independent Commission for Aid Impact (ICAI). "Confirmed: Our Foreign Aid Fuels Corruption" is the Mail's splash. Not enough is being done to fight corruption and it is violating Dfid's "do no harm" doctrine. "This is a gap in Dfid's programming that needs to be filled," Graham Ward, ICAI supremo says
LOW LOW LOW
David Cameron would prefer interest rates to stay low as it allows families to "buy the homes they can afford". But the PM added: "It would be disastrous if I could tell them [the Bank of England] what to do, because politicians interfering in interest rates is not a good thing." Matt Holehouse reports from the PM's Q&A in Runcorn. . 
KEEPING IT IN THE FAMILY
Every new policy will face a "family friendly" test to make sure they encourage support for families in general and marriage in particular, Iain Duncan Smith says in the Mail. The guidance has been drawn up with the help of Relate, which estimates that familial breakdown costs the UK £46 billion a year.
WHY ALWAYS HIM?
Guy Opperman caused a flurry of excitement after tweeting that Liverpool's misfiring forward, Mario Balotelli, had "popped in to Commons Gallery to watch the Drug Policy debate".  It turns out that it was in fact a 55-year-old dancer, Ken Hinds, who says he "gets it all the time". Mario Balotelli is 24. See the uncanny resemblance for yourself here.
You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work isavailable here.  
HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?
31.10.14
POLL OF POLLS
Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 17% (ComRes-Opinium-Populus-YouGov, 24.10.2014-31.10.2014)
LATEST POLLS:
YouGov: Conservatives 33%, Labour 32%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 15%, Greens 7%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@patrick_kidd: After this poll there may be a stampede of Labour MPs seeking the leadership in Scotland. Got to keep a job somehow.
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Fraser Nelson - Leaving the EU won't solve immigration problem
Isabel Hardman - Tory malcontents are whipping up a storm
Alan Cochrane - Jim Murphy could be Labour's only hope
David Blair - Does British aid to Africa help the powerful more than the poor? 
From elsewhere

Aditya Chakrabortty - I'm Bengali and I'm black, in the same way that my parents were (Guardian)Tim Montgomerie - Austerity is over; and that's a big mistake (Times)
1900 DUMFRIES: Nicola Sturgeon rally. 

No nation Labour..


We knew yesterday that the Opposition had a fight for its hands in Scotland. Two polls reveal the scale of the challenge. An Ipsos Mori poll for STV finds 52% of Scots planning to vote for the SNP, with just 23% planning to vote for Ed Miliband's party: from 41 seats to just 4. A YouGov survey for the Times is a little bit better, with Nicola Sturgeon's outfit on 43% and Labour on 27%, with Labour holding on to 10 seats north of the border. "Wipeout for Labour looming in Scotland" is their splash.
Of course, it's worth noting that a uniform swing is, frankly, highly unlikely. Many of Labour's MPs are pretty well dug in. Equally, the political situation at present could hardly be better for the Nationalists, with Ms Sturgeon's triumphant tour through the nation and Scottish Labour leaderless and fractious. But it also looks highly unlikely that Labour will be able to hold on to more than 30 seats north of the border. The chances of Ed Miliband leading the largest party, let alone winning a majority, are receding rapidly. 
That said, there's little to celebrate for the Conservatives either. The despairing note struck by Thomas Docherty, a Labour frontbencher, on the World at One, carries a warning for the PM, too: "the SNP win again, the Tories win again...[and] another referendum". The Opposition's woes in its heartlands may be good for the Conservative and Unionist Party if it allows the PM back into office despite the Ukip factor. It is less good for conservative or Unionist principles if the price of victory is a further weakening of the United Kingdom. 

THE HUNTING OF THE WOOLF
Fiona Woolf, the judge at the head of the child abuse inquiry, is under further pressure to resign after it emerged that her letter to Theresa May was rewritten to play down her links with Lord Brittan, the Conservative peer at the centre of the scandal, David Barrett reports"Woolf At The Exit Door" is the Mirror's splash. Reclusive MP Keith Vaz warns: "The lessons of the Butler-Sloss appointment and resignation have not been learned."
ALAS, ANAS
Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour's deputy leader, has announced that he will resign his post once a leader is found, allowing that party to refresh its leadership entirely (and, in the event of a Jim Murphy victory, avoiding a top team drawn entirely from the Commons). It still looks likely that Mr Sarwar, the MP for Glasgow Central, will be moved into the Shadow Cabinet as Scottish Secretary, with Margaret Curran taking up post at Shadow Dfid. However, I'm told that move will be very badly received by development NGOs, who have been dissatisfied with Jim Murphy's performance at Dfid and are uneasy at Ed Milband's use of the post as a consolation. It may be smarter to promote Shadow Finance Secretary Catherine McKinnell or Alison McGovern, the junior frontbencher for Dfid, both of whom are liked and respected in the development sector as part of a wider-ranging reshuffle.
MERLIN'S MAGIC FADES
Further trouble for the Conservative campaign in Rochester & Strood.Laura Pitel reports that the campaign has been hit by glitches in the software designed to target voters, the much-maligned "Merlin" system. One Conservative staffer quips that "Source Merlin" turned out to be a front for Soviet intelligence in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and that the IT system "does the same for Ed Miliband". Merlin is being gradually replaced by VoteSource, a superior system.

"IT MIGHT BE WORTH LISTENING TO ME"
Tony Blair has warned Labour against "chasing after" anti-immigration policies in an interview with Progress, Ben-Riley Smith reports. Labour should "not end up chasing after the policies of a party like Ukip, who you don't agree with, whose policies would take this country backwards economically, politically, in every conceivable way", Mr Blair says. The full interview is available here.

HELPING THE POWERFUL, OR THE POOR?
UK foreign aid is helping to fund corruption overseas, according to the Independent Commission for Aid Impact (ICAI). "Confirmed: Our Foreign Aid Fuels Corruption" is the Mail's splash. Not enough is being done to fight corruption and it is violating Dfid's "do no harm" doctrine. "This is a gap in Dfid's programming that needs to be filled," Graham Ward, ICAI supremo says
LOW LOW LOW
David Cameron would prefer interest rates to stay low as it allows families to "buy the homes they can afford". But the PM added: "It would be disastrous if I could tell them [the Bank of England] what to do, because politicians interfering in interest rates is not a good thing." Matt Holehouse reports from the PM's Q&A in Runcorn. . 
KEEPING IT IN THE FAMILY
Every new policy will face a "family friendly" test to make sure they encourage support for families in general and marriage in particular, Iain Duncan Smith says in the Mail. The guidance has been drawn up with the help of Relate, which estimates that familial breakdown costs the UK £46 billion a year.
WHY ALWAYS HIM?
Guy Opperman caused a flurry of excitement after tweeting that Liverpool's misfiring forward, Mario Balotelli, had "popped in to Commons Gallery to watch the Drug Policy debate".  It turns out that it was in fact a 55-year-old dancer, Ken Hinds, who says he "gets it all the time". Mario Balotelli is 24. See the uncanny resemblance for yourself here.
You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work isavailable here.  
HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?
31.10.14
POLL OF POLLS
Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 17% (ComRes-Opinium-Populus-YouGov, 24.10.2014-31.10.2014)
LATEST POLLS:
YouGov: Conservatives 33%, Labour 32%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 15%, Greens 7%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@patrick_kidd: After this poll there may be a stampede of Labour MPs seeking the leadership in Scotland. Got to keep a job somehow.
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Fraser Nelson - Leaving the EU won't solve immigration problem
Isabel Hardman - Tory malcontents are whipping up a storm
Alan Cochrane - Jim Murphy could be Labour's only hope
David Blair - Does British aid to Africa help the powerful more than the poor? 
From elsewhere

Aditya Chakrabortty - I'm Bengali and I'm black, in the same way that my parents were (Guardian)Tim Montgomerie - Austerity is over; and that's a big mistake (Times)
1900 DUMFRIES: Nicola Sturgeon rally. 

No nation Labour..


We knew yesterday that the Opposition had a fight for its hands in Scotland. Two polls reveal the scale of the challenge. An Ipsos Mori poll for STV finds 52% of Scots planning to vote for the SNP, with just 23% planning to vote for Ed Miliband's party: from 41 seats to just 4. A YouGov survey for the Times is a little bit better, with Nicola Sturgeon's outfit on 43% and Labour on 27%, with Labour holding on to 10 seats north of the border. "Wipeout for Labour looming in Scotland" is their splash.
Of course, it's worth noting that a uniform swing is, frankly, highly unlikely. Many of Labour's MPs are pretty well dug in. Equally, the political situation at present could hardly be better for the Nationalists, with Ms Sturgeon's triumphant tour through the nation and Scottish Labour leaderless and fractious. But it also looks highly unlikely that Labour will be able to hold on to more than 30 seats north of the border. The chances of Ed Miliband leading the largest party, let alone winning a majority, are receding rapidly. 
That said, there's little to celebrate for the Conservatives either. The despairing note struck by Thomas Docherty, a Labour frontbencher, on the World at One, carries a warning for the PM, too: "the SNP win again, the Tories win again...[and] another referendum". The Opposition's woes in its heartlands may be good for the Conservative and Unionist Party if it allows the PM back into office despite the Ukip factor. It is less good for conservative or Unionist principles if the price of victory is a further weakening of the United Kingdom. 

THE HUNTING OF THE WOOLF
Fiona Woolf, the judge at the head of the child abuse inquiry, is under further pressure to resign after it emerged that her letter to Theresa May was rewritten to play down her links with Lord Brittan, the Conservative peer at the centre of the scandal, David Barrett reports"Woolf At The Exit Door" is the Mirror's splash. Reclusive MP Keith Vaz warns: "The lessons of the Butler-Sloss appointment and resignation have not been learned."
ALAS, ANAS
Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour's deputy leader, has announced that he will resign his post once a leader is found, allowing that party to refresh its leadership entirely (and, in the event of a Jim Murphy victory, avoiding a top team drawn entirely from the Commons). It still looks likely that Mr Sarwar, the MP for Glasgow Central, will be moved into the Shadow Cabinet as Scottish Secretary, with Margaret Curran taking up post at Shadow Dfid. However, I'm told that move will be very badly received by development NGOs, who have been dissatisfied with Jim Murphy's performance at Dfid and are uneasy at Ed Milband's use of the post as a consolation. It may be smarter to promote Shadow Finance Secretary Catherine McKinnell or Alison McGovern, the junior frontbencher for Dfid, both of whom are liked and respected in the development sector as part of a wider-ranging reshuffle.
MERLIN'S MAGIC FADES
Further trouble for the Conservative campaign in Rochester & Strood.Laura Pitel reports that the campaign has been hit by glitches in the software designed to target voters, the much-maligned "Merlin" system. One Conservative staffer quips that "Source Merlin" turned out to be a front for Soviet intelligence in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and that the IT system "does the same for Ed Miliband". Merlin is being gradually replaced by VoteSource, a superior system.

"IT MIGHT BE WORTH LISTENING TO ME"
Tony Blair has warned Labour against "chasing after" anti-immigration policies in an interview with Progress, Ben-Riley Smith reports. Labour should "not end up chasing after the policies of a party like Ukip, who you don't agree with, whose policies would take this country backwards economically, politically, in every conceivable way", Mr Blair says. The full interview is available here.

HELPING THE POWERFUL, OR THE POOR?
UK foreign aid is helping to fund corruption overseas, according to the Independent Commission for Aid Impact (ICAI). "Confirmed: Our Foreign Aid Fuels Corruption" is the Mail's splash. Not enough is being done to fight corruption and it is violating Dfid's "do no harm" doctrine. "This is a gap in Dfid's programming that needs to be filled," Graham Ward, ICAI supremo says
LOW LOW LOW
David Cameron would prefer interest rates to stay low as it allows families to "buy the homes they can afford". But the PM added: "It would be disastrous if I could tell them [the Bank of England] what to do, because politicians interfering in interest rates is not a good thing." Matt Holehouse reports from the PM's Q&A in Runcorn. . 
KEEPING IT IN THE FAMILY
Every new policy will face a "family friendly" test to make sure they encourage support for families in general and marriage in particular, Iain Duncan Smith says in the Mail. The guidance has been drawn up with the help of Relate, which estimates that familial breakdown costs the UK £46 billion a year.
WHY ALWAYS HIM?
Guy Opperman caused a flurry of excitement after tweeting that Liverpool's misfiring forward, Mario Balotelli, had "popped in to Commons Gallery to watch the Drug Policy debate".  It turns out that it was in fact a 55-year-old dancer, Ken Hinds, who says he "gets it all the time". Mario Balotelli is 24. See the uncanny resemblance for yourself here.
You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work isavailable here.  
HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?
31.10.14
POLL OF POLLS
Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 17% (ComRes-Opinium-Populus-YouGov, 24.10.2014-31.10.2014)
LATEST POLLS:
YouGov: Conservatives 33%, Labour 32%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 15%, Greens 7%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@patrick_kidd: After this poll there may be a stampede of Labour MPs seeking the leadership in Scotland. Got to keep a job somehow.
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Fraser Nelson - Leaving the EU won't solve immigration problem
Isabel Hardman - Tory malcontents are whipping up a storm
Alan Cochrane - Jim Murphy could be Labour's only hope
David Blair - Does British aid to Africa help the powerful more than the poor? 
From elsewhere

Aditya Chakrabortty - I'm Bengali and I'm black, in the same way that my parents were (Guardian)Tim Montgomerie - Austerity is over; and that's a big mistake (Times)
1900 DUMFRIES: Nicola Sturgeon rally. 

Thursday 30 October 2014

Cake or death...


And he's off! Jim Murphy has kicked off his campaign to lead Scottish Labour with an interview in this morning's Daily Record. He "has what Scottish Labour needs so badly: energy, no fear of the SNP and the ability to win elections" James Forsyth declares in the Spectator.  
"I am not going to shout at or about the SNP," Mr Murphy tells the Record, "I am going to talk to and listen to Scotland. The job I am applying for is to be First Minister of Scotland." If elected he will quit his Westminster seat to take office in Holyrood, rather like a little-known politician called Alex Salmond did in 2004.
Can he pull it off? Several pollsters are currently conducting detailed studies of the Scottish vote, with the first survey expected towards the end of the next week. The expectation is that they will show the SNP surging in Westminster and Holyrood, leaving Labour with a mountain to climb. But Mr Murphy turned one of the safest Conservative seats into his own fiefdom, so that barrier is by no means insurmountable. 
The struggle to win over Scottish Labour may be more difficult than it appears. As one of David Miliband's campaign managers in 2010 - "he did English, I did Maths", he said of the division of labour between himself and Douglas Alexander in that battle - Mr Murphy knows only too well that Labour's electoral college can do strange things sometimes. There is lingering resentment among Unite, the largest trade union and the Labour left about Mr Murphy' s role in the Falkirk scandal, his support for the nation of Israel and his obstinate refusal to lose elections. 

Neil Findlay MSP, who also announced yesterday, will adopt the SNP's argument that Scotland's different political culture means that Mr Murphy is too right-wing to win power at Holyrood. That appeal, and lingering resentment over the Falkirk scandal could exact a heavy price. One Labour staffer last night quipped to me that the battle between Mr Murphy, Mr Findlay and Sarah Boyack was "like the Eddie Izzard sketch: cake or death?" That's certainly an accurate reflection of Jim Murphy's qualities as a politician. But no-one ever went broke betting on Labour's appetite for choosing death.  

HEY BIG SPENDER
"Cutting taxes a moral duty, says Cameron" is the Times' splash. David Cameron is back on the offensive with a column in the Times, designed to put the focus back on Conservative tax cuts versus Labour profligacy. "Labour wants to put up taxes on people's homes, jobs, pensions - even their deaths," the PM declares. "Conservatives are committed to cutting your taxes." "He's raised taxes 24 times," splutters Labour's Chris Leslie. Senior government sources intend that the column form the beginning of a pivot away from the issues of Europe and immigration and towards the economy, Sam Coates explains in the Times.
MIGRANTS, MIGRANTS, EVERYWHERE
Schools are struggling to cope with growing numbers of migrant children and need additional resources, Sir Michael Wilshaw has said.  "Teachers Battle To Cope With Influx Of Migrants" is the Mail's take. In the Sun,Simon Danczuk writes that immigration is "putting considerable pressure on [public] services that are already at breaking point". "Rochdale feels swamped already" is the headline.
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS EYE EUROPA LEAGUE
The Greens have pushed the Liberal Democrats into fifth place for the first time in a YouGov poll for the Sun. (The numbers: Greens 7%, Liberals 6%) It's "well within the margin of error so don't get too excited,"Anthony Wells counsels. The interesting thing though, is that, with less than seven months ago, the much-expected Liberal recovery still looks elusive. 
EAW DEAR
Ed Miliband was denied his moment in the Sun at PMQs yesterday when David Cameron announced that, contra the Labour leader's words, the vote to renew the European Arrest Warrant will be held before, not after the Rochester & Strood by-election. It's likely to pass with relative ease thanks to the support of Labour and the Liberal Democrats, but, Steven Swinford explains, the expected rebellion of up to 100 Tory MPs will cause embarrassment for the PM. Would-be rebels should save their fire for 2017, our leader says: "The argument over sovereignty goes far wider than the EAW and should be saved for an in/out referendum. Yet the prospect of getting that referendum will be damaged, perhaps irreparably, by renewed civil war inside the only party that will deliver it." 
BRITAIN CAN CUT IT
George Osborne told ITV that he believes Britain can reduce its £1.7 billion bill from the European Union. British taxpayers "expect a fair deal", the Chancellor said, "and that's exactly what I'm going to make sure they get". But any hope of getting something knocked off the bill was played down by Lord Hill, yesterday, who says that, it appears that, when all's said and done the recalculation will result in a smaller overall bill for Britain.
EDWARD OF YORK GAVE BATTLE IN VAIN?Polls are open in the South Yorkshire police commissioner by-election, where Ukip hope to gain their first PCC following the resignation of Labour's Shaun Wright due to his failures in the grooming scandal. Labour sources on the ground were pessimistic yesterday: they fear that the posts are so far down people's priorities that "only people angry with Europe, immigration and us" will bother to vote.

NICK AND NORMAN GET THE MUNCHIES
Norman Baker struck a confused note on the Today programme while discussing a Home Office study that suggests that a punitive approach to drug sentencing is failing to curb drug abuse in Britain. However, Downing Street say that the report does not support the Liberal policy of decriminalisation. "It's naked political posturing," Michael Ellis, a Conservative MP, said on the Today programme, before branding the Liberal Democrats' policy as "dangerous and irresponsible".
LIPMAN VS MILIBAND
Maureen Lipman has abandoned her support for Ed Miliband's Labour Party over his support for Palestinian statehood, Matt Holehouse reports. In an article for Standpoint Magazine, Ms Lipman writes that Tony Blair did "great work to restore the party's fortunes", that she is still fond of Tony Benn's diaries, and that she is Alan Johnson's "number one fan". "But this lot? The Chuka Harman Burnham Hunt Balls brigade? I can't, in all seriousness, go into a booth and put my mark on any one of them."
NOTT GOOD
Sir John Nott, Margaret Thatcher's Defence Secretary during the Falklands War, tells Ned Simons at the Huffington Post that he voted for Nigel Farage's party in the European elections, although he's not a fan of Ukip's immigration policy: "Though I don’t like their immigration policy. The Poles have saved this country. If you want a plumber, you have to find a Pole. And you can’t go anywhere in London without being served by a lovely Polish girl." Sir John will return to the Conservative fold next May, however.
The Morning Briefing is written by Stephen Bush, who tweets as@stephenkb. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his cartoons on Instagram.
HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?
30.10.14
POLL OF POLLS
Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 17%
LATEST POLLS:
YouGov: Conservatives 31%, Labour 34%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Ukip 17%, Greens 7%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@NickCohen4: Every morning I wake up full of good intentions, then Thought for the Day comes on and my mind turns to murder.
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Robert Colvile - Our immigration problems are a result of Britain's success
James Kirkup - How often do we talk about immigration? Quite a lot, it turns out

Peter Oborne - Must we dance to the Saudi tune over the Muslim Brotherhood?
Allison Pearson - In Baby P's case, actions speak louder than words
From elsewhere

David Aaronovitch - A naked man isn't shocking. Locking him up is (Times)James Forsyth - Jim Murphy has what Scottish Labour needs: energy, fearlessness and the ability to win (Spectator)
George Eaton - The fall of the reluctant leader: the inside story of Scottish Labour's crisis (Statesman) AGENDA
0900: Call Clegg on LBC 97.3.
0900 MANCHESTER: National Children and Adult Services Conference, including speeches by Nicky Morgan, Eric Pickles and Jeremy Hunt.
TODAY IN PARLIAMENT
COMMONS
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Questions.
Church Commissioners, the Public Accounts Commission and the Speakers' Committee on the Electoral Commission Questions.
A statement on the future business of the House.
 Two backbench business debates:
 i) UK Drugs Policy
 ii) Sale of park homes.
A short debate on Coventry's general practices.
WESTMINSTER HALL
1330: A debate on the first joint report from the Committees on Arms Export Controls, Scrutiny of Arms Exports and Arms Controls and the Government's response.
LORDS
Introduction of Lord Rose of Monewden.
Questions.
A debate on the situation in the Middle East and North Africa.
A short debate on giving football fans a greater say in the running of clubs.
A short debate on combating slavery in supply chains. 

Tuesday 28 October 2014

More EU..


ch, Michael Deacon decides: "They want Britain to leave. That has to be it."  The PM came close to agreeing yesterday. The affair is "not a good development" for people trying to argue that the European Union is "capable of reform", Mr Cameron said.  
"We are not paying a sum anything like that," he continued. "So now we knew," quips Ann Treneman in the Times: "Britain was like, sort of, kind of, not going to pay anything nearish or even more-ish." You'll open a "Pandora's Box" warns Jacek Dominik, the departing EU commissioner, which could even end up with Britain losing its EU budget rebate. It could go a bit further than that, says Nick Watt in the Guardian: "a toxic mix of an impending Ukip victory...combined with some deeply unhelpful developments in the EU, are forcing the PM to adopt ever harder positions". It could end up with Mr Cameron ending up arguing for a European exit in 2017. 
He'll worry about that tomorrow. As Ann Treneman puts it: "Dave now fears only those who sit behind him. All he says is for their ears only". The official Opposition did rather well yesterday thanks to a letter from Nicky Morgan in March showing that the Treasury was aware of the possibility of a big bill some  months ago. The Sun's not sold, though. "Who cares if a few officials in Whitehall knew months ago we would be slapped with a £1.7 billion invoice?" their leader asks. "We all know how Miliband would react to a shock £1.7 billion EU bill: by writing out the cheque. Credit to Cameron that he hasn't."  

That's as maybe, but the problem is that it has awoken the old fears on the government benches about the PM's tendency to drift into crisis, and it's making both the Eurosceptics and the Europhiles antsy. Frankly the ongoing debate about whether Britain is swamped, deluged or merely lightly spattered with immigrants may well do more for Ukip's chances in Rochester than any bill, no matter how outrageous it may be. The prospects for exit, however, may be rather stronger than the polls suggest.  
 
FORBID THEM NOT TO COME UNTO ME
Politicians must choose their language carefully and "not treat immigration as just a deep menace that will overwhelm" Britain, the Archbishop of Canterbury warned yesterday, suggesting that inflammatory rhetoric was leading to an increase in racial tension in communities. David Blunkett appears to have missed the memo."Blunkett: Migrants Really Are Swamping Parts Of UK" is the Mail's splash.  The former Home Secretary has ridden to Michael Fallon's rescue in a column for today's Mail. Eastern European immigration to his constituency has caused "a host of difficulties" including increasied waste collection because of houses of multiple occupation, exploitation of migrants by rogue landlords, and "the gathering of large groups in the streets". 
THE DEVIL AND THE DEEP BLUE SEABritain will not support any further search and rescue operations to prevent migrants drowning in the Mediterranean, the Foreign Office has announced.  It's believed that the rescue operations encourage others to attempt the dangerous crossing, actually endangering more lives than it saves. But Maurice Wren, chief executive of the British Refugee Council, is not convinced. "Boarding a rickety boat in Libya will remain a seemingly rational decision if you're running for your life and your country is in flames," he tells the Guardian.
JIM MURPHY'S MOMENT?
Gordon Brown as well as two rising stars of Scottish Labour, Jenny Marra and Kezia Dugdale, have ruled themselves out of contention for the leadership, while Anas Sarwar, the deputy leader, has also confirmed that he will not be standing. It looks like a straight contest between Neil Findlay from the party's left and Jim Murphy, who is expected to declare his intentions later today. The election will be decided by Labour's electoral college; one third MPs and MSPs, one third members, and a third from "affliates" (that is, trade unions, councilors and various groups like the Scottish Fabians). Pressure is growing on Mr Sarwar to announce that he, too, will stand down, in order to allow an MSP to take his position. 

DAVE'S CLOSE SHAVE
David Cameron's protection officers are under fire - not like that - after allowing Dean Farley, a jogger, to run into the PM yesterday, seemingly shoving him. (You can watch the video here.)  "It Could Have Been A Terrorist" squeals the Mirror's splash. "What if this man had been carrying a knife?" the Mail frets.  
REDUNDANCY, REDUNDANT
Highly paid government officials will be stripped of their redundancy payments if they are subsequently rehired, the government will announce today. Under new legislation, individuals earning more than £100,00 who take a new job in the same part of the public sector within a year will have to repay all or part of their redundancy package. The law will apply to local government civil servants and NHS workers but not to the Armed Forces, the BBC or the Bank of England, Steven Swinford reports
ANARCHY IN THE UK
Terrorists will use Britain as a bolthole if MPs vote to pull out of the European arrest warrant, the security services have warned. Mark Field, the MP for Cities of London and Westminster, said: “The security services have made a pretty compelling case that we do need to opt back in. There are jihadists from Europe and if we are the weak link in the chain, the risk is some of them would come to the UK and go to ground."  But Jacob Rees-Mogg has accused the Home Office of giving "inaccurate briefings" about the risks of opting-out. 
SEXIST BRITAIN
The UK's gender gap has continued to widen, according to a World Economic Forum report. Britain has slipped out of the Top 20 countries, falling from 18th to 26th in the annual Global Gender Gap report, its lowest overall score since 2008. When the league table began in 2006, the UK was ranked ninth. 
BIRDS OF A FEATHER? 
Ukip activists took a break from campaigning for Mark Reckless in Rochester & Strood to take a picture with Britain First activist Jayda Fransen, the far right party. "Our policies are very similar to Ukip's, in fact they almost mirror them," Ms Fransen said. Ukip disagree. "We have no connection with Britain First and reject any association with them," a spokesman told BuzzFeed, "A mistake of this nature will not happen again." The activists in question have had the error of their ways explained to them, the spokesman continued. 
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; see a gallery of his workhere.  You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", or on Twitter. .HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED OVER THE LAST MONTH?
28.10.14

POLL OF POLLS
ComRes-Opinium-Populus-YouGov(21.10.14-28.10.14): Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 17% Others 10%LATEST POLLS
Ashcroft: Conservatives 31% Labour 31% Liberal Democrats 7% Ukip 18%
Populus: Conservatives 34% Labour 36% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 13%
YouGov: Conservatives 32%, Labour 32%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Ukip 16%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@MikeSmithsonPB: It's been calculated that cost of administering the 2012 PCC elections was £11.19 per vote cast
COMMENT
From the Telegraph


Emma Barnett - David Cameron:this is what feminism looks like
Philip Johnston - Only the spirit of Fontainebleau can reduce our soaring EU bill From elsewhere 


Janan Ganesh - Cameron is right to stand up to Brussels on the budget(FT)
Ed Conway - Europe is still awaiting its Thatcher moment (Times)
AGENDA0900 LONDON: Ofgem's annual winter outlook seminar where National Grid will explain its latest analysis on supply and demand for gas and electricity this winter.
0930 LONDON: Energy minister Matthew Hancock publishes security of supply report.
0945 LONDON: Boris Johnson speech on investing in infrastructure and Crossrail 2.
1430 LONDON: NHS England chief executive Simon Stevens gives evidence to the Commons Health Committee on spending on health and social care.
1445 LONDON: Commons Home Affairs Committee takes evidence from Mayor of Calais on migration. 
1530 LONDON: Lords Communications Committee takes evidence on women in broadcasting.
1830 LONDON: Tristram Hunt in conversation with David Aaronovitch at Progress event.
COMMONS
Foreign Office Questions.
A Ten Minute Rule Motion: School Governors (Appointment).
Two Opposition Day debates: i) The negative effect of the Government's policies on disabled people; ii) Coalfield Communities.
A short debate on the A5 trunk road between the M42 and the M69.
WESTMINSTER HALL
0930: Copycat websites for Government services.
1100: Citizens Advice Scotland's report entitled Voices from the Frontline: Personal Independence Payments.
1430: UK aid to education for children and young people with disabilities.
1600: Future of the Furness line.
1630: UK visa applications from Malawi.
LORDS
Introductions, Baroness Evans of Bowes Park and Lord Cashman.
Questions.
Serious Crime Bill [HL] - Report stage (Day 2).
A short debate on the long-term financial sustainability of music education hubs and the National Plan for Music Education.
TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Friday 24 October 2014

More EU..

The European Union has handed Britain a £1.7 billion bill after a recalculation of members states' fortunes. "EU makes Britain pay for recovery" is our splash. "EU orders Britain to pay £1.7bn surcharge" says the Times. "Brussels Asks UK For More Cash" rages the Mail. "Brussels demands €2bn from UK after economy outpaces EU rivals" is the scrupulously exact angle taken by the FT. 
The figures are calculated from 1995, which means that crisis-hit Greece is among the nations handed a bigger bill from the EU while Germany will receive a €0.78bn rebate. As you can imagine, Downing Street are absolutely thrilled. Similarly cheesed off is Mark Rutte of the Netherlands, also handed a bigger bill at the eleventh hour, who is considering legal action. The PM will seek to build an alliance against the charge. 
It's only darkened the mood around an already acrimonious summit. Also on the agenda: getting the 18 European nations who have given less to the fight against Ebola than Ikea and the overall hike in the European budget for 2015. (Matt Holehouse has the details) But with clashes already to come over the European Arrest Warrant, probable defeat in Rochester & Strood, the last thing the PM needs is another Brussels-induced headache. 
 
COMING OVER HERE
Closer to home, European discomfort is also available in a tasteful shade of red. Ed Miliband has pledged a five-point plan to tackle immigration on the campaign trail in Rochester & Strood. Border checks on arrival and departure, tougher regulation of the labour market to prevent abuse and a requirement that all public sector workers are among the plans.  "Immigration, immigration, immigration" is the Indy's splash. None of the announcements are new, but there's a perception, fairly or unfairly, that when the Shadow Cabinet talks tough Ed Miliband doesn't mean it - hence the anguish over the Labour leader's reiteration of policies already laid out by Yvette Cooper. 
It's re-opened the Opposition's internal divisions over immigration. "From thinking the unthinkable to reannouncing the unworkable," a Shadow Cabinet source tells me, while Diane Abbot tweets that Labour will fighting the election "on Ukip's turf". 
THE WOOLF AT BAY
Nick Clegg backed Fiona Woolf's ability to head the child abuse inquiry on his LBC phone-in yesterday. Ms Woolf could use some more friends. With the inevitability of an unloved season, Keith Vaz has entered the scene. His select committee is writing to Ms Woolf to "about how much time she has to do this very important job," he told the World at One. "If she feels that she doesn’t have the confidence of the victims and others, then I’m sure she will make her decision in her own way.”
A BLIND EYE
Parents should be able to take their children on holiday during school terms without being threatened with fines or arrest, the Local Government Association said yesterday. The body, which represents councilors  and other officials, says that while it agrees with the Government's conviction that every child should be in school ever day, there were occasions when parents' requests should be considered: such as religious festivals, weddings, funerals or a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity". Chris Hope and Peter Dominiczak have the story
NICK CLEGG VERSUS THE WORLD
chorus of anger is growing at the release of police killer Harry Roberts, who was jailed for life in 1966 after murdering three police officers and has now been granted parole. Theresa May, Boris Johnson and the head of the Met, Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe are among those calling for "life to mean life" in this case and for the parole board to think again. But the DPM has defended the process to release the 78-year-old. "It’s not about my feelings, it’s about how the justice system works," Mr Clegg said, "If you want to run the system according to the latest emotion you feel, fine, but that would be a disaster.”
PRIMARY COLOURS
Kelly Tollhurst, a local councilor, has been selected as the Conservative candidate in the open primary to pick a standard-bearer in the battle against Mark Reckless in Rochester & Strood, winning by just 50 vote, Laura Pitel reports in the Times. The party will be disappointed by the fact that just 5,668 voters participated in the contest between Ms Tollhurst and Anna Firth, a former barrister, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm locally for the campaign. 
MORE GLAMOUR FOR GEORGE
Another celebrity endorsement for the Chancellor. Hot on the heels of Sol Campbell, who is now considering a permanent transfer to the Conservative Party to oppose Labour's plans for the mansion tax, Russell Brand has come out for the lowest rate of corporation tax in the G8. "With a 20% profit tax on Tesco per quarter, you could build a hospital in Leeds," Mr Brand told the Guardian's Owen Jones
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; see a gallery of his work here.  You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", or on Twitter. .
POLL OF POLLS
24.10.14
Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 17% Others 10%
HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED OVER THE PAST MONTH?
.MonthlyTrend24.10.14
LATEST POLLS
YouGov: Conservatives 31%, Labour 33%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 17%, Greens 6%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@timothy_stanley: Help! I live in an age when Russell Brand is revered like Bertrand Russell! Get me out of here!
COMMENT 
From the Telegraph

Fraser Nelson - The health revolution is under way, but no fanfare please
Dan Hodges - Westminster may be running scared of Ukip - but the British people aren't
From elsewhere  


Gaby Hinsliff - The forelock-tugging's gone, but most of us still depend on servants (Guardian)
Philip Collins - To save the NHS we must let Mrs Smith run it  (Times) 
AGENDA
0900 LONDON: Nigel Farage LBC phone-in.
0930 LONDON: First estimate of GDP for the third quarter is published by the Office for National Statistics. 
TODAY IN PARLIAMENT
COMMONS
Self-build and Custom Housebuilding Bill - Second reading.
Control of Horses Bill - Second reading.
Local Government (Review of Decisions) Bill - Second reading.
Illegal Immigrants (Criminal Sanctions) Bill - Second reading.
House of Lords (Maximum Membership) Bill - Second reading.
Personal, Social, Health and Economic Education (Statutory Requirement) Bill - Second reading.
Mental Health Act 1983 (Amendment) Bill - Second reading.
A short debate on the case of Christopher Rochester.
LORDS
Medical Innovation Bill [HL] - Committee of the whole House.
Mutuals' Redeemable and Deferred Shares Bill [HL] - Second reading.

House of Lords (Expulsion and Suspension) Bill [HL] - Second reading.